Merkel coalition blues

Merkel dances on the edge. As a Daily Mail article puts it, Merkel’s last chance: Chancellor must agree a coalition deal TONIGHT to avoid political crisis for Germany… and admits there are ‘large obstacles in their path’.

Her problem is simple to explain but verges on impossible to solve. She MUST form a coalition government by 5pm CST Jan 22, 2018. If she does not, things happen.

CNBC describes the options as follows;

  • minority government
  • another grand coalition
  • new elections

Since the hard right, think AfD, has been gaining ground recently, she will NOT want to risk another election.

The CNBC article also points out that:

“If Merkel were to lead a minority government, passing legislation in the Bundestag would be a political nightmare given the differences between the several parties.”

The CDU was sharing power with the Socialist Party, in the prior coalition until the September elections were held. The Socialist Party has indicated that it prefers to be in opposition. In other words, another grand coalition does not look like it is going to happen, no return to the good old days.

Making all of this even more entertaining is the fact that this could be “…the first time since World War II that a German election hasn’t produced a government.”

My gut instinct is that she will get her coalition. She has been in the game a LONG time and knows the rights moves. Neither she, nor the other politicos can afford to see any more shift to the hard right. I hope she fails, but rats on a sinking ship tend to go down last…

If she does cut the deals, she is going to be miserable and have problems getting the simplest of legislation taken care of. If she fails to form the coalition, it is back to the races and anything can happen!

The European politicos like to keep everything to the last minute to build drama and appear to actually be doing something. For all I know, the deals have already been made and this is just Merkel showmanship…

Even if a deal is cut, a vote must be held by a legislative group on January 21st. To get that vote to approve any coalition, they will need to overcome the very valid concerns of the party members…

I say, “Who needs organized sports when you have politics?” Feel free to quote me!

Happy New Year London!

Brietbart shows the new crime numbers for London.

In May of 2016, London elected its first Muslim mayor, Sadiq Khan. He is the fellow who said that President Trump was not welcome in London. He is the fellow who said that terrorism is just a fact of modern life.

The Mayor of London’s Police and Crime Office, gives us the following;

From 2015/16 to 2016/17:

Homicides in London up by 27.1%.
Youth homicide up by 70.0%.
Serious youth violence up by 19.0%.
Robbery up by 33.4%.
Home Burglaries up by 18.7%.
Knife crimes up by 31.3%.
Gun crimes up by 16.3%.
Rape up by 18.3%.

Sadiq Khan is the one mayor who can almost make Chicago’s tiny dancer, Rahm Emanuel, look like he is still a viable option…

The people of Londonistan have him, I’ll bet it is almost impossible to get rid of him. I predict a major decrease in property values and any non-Muhammadans leaving the city.

Laura Huhtasaari Fighting for Finland

“The game is really brutal … No-one is in politics looking for friends.”

Reuters has an interesting article, Presidential hopeful wants Finland out of EU, says nationalists will bounce back

Finnish MP Laura Huhtasaari

Finnish MP Laura Huhtasaari at SuomiAreena in Pori, Finland, 2016.
Photo by: Soppakanuuna

Laura Huhtasaari (pronounced “huh-tah-sorry”), has some big goals;

  • Finland will leave the European Union
  • Tighten Immigration Rules

January 28, 2018 is Finland’s next big election.

With 70% of the Finns supporting EU membership, she has little chance of immediate success. she is building her brand and getting the message out.

“Things happen slowly when you’re fighting against the hegemony… I still have time before the elections”

She supports President Donald Trump and Britain’s former UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage. Laura believes the eurosceptic movement will be the future.

It will be interesting to see how she does.

Catalonia Elections In December

The Daily Mail has a very detailed article BREAKING NEWS: Catalonia’s president flees to Brussels after Belgium offered him asylum as Spain issues him with €6 MILLION bail and announces plan to charge senior officials with sedition and rebellion, describing the entire Catalonia situation.

Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage said the declaration of independence had been caused by the ‘appalling behaviour’ of the Spanish Government who had pushed Catalonia ‘too far’.

He added: ‘This is going to turn into the EU’s most undesired nightmare.’

A near worst case scenario is now in play. Carles Puigdemont has fled to Brussels.

Prime Minister Rajoy tweeted after the vote, “I ask all Spaniards to remain calm. The rule of law will restore legality in Catalonia.”

The Spanish central government has scheduled elections in December. If and when those occur, the current odds are that the separatists will lose their majority. Who thinks that the separatists will do everything they can to create an incident before then? The next few weeks are going to be a test for Rajoy. Can he keep things from getting very bloody between now and then?

In all honesty, the Spain’s central government is probably in the right. The problem is that they have handled the situation in the worst possible way, as far as appearances go. The separatists are playing the press brilliantly. While the separatists are poised to deliver misery and financial ruin, they have managed to keep all of the focus on the central government’s tone-deafness. Think about it, the separatists are not the majority, yet they are playing it as if they are. The majority, is doing stupid things like giving nazi-like salutes in marches. I hope that there are lots of troops deployed and that they keep their fingers off the triggers.

If I was Rajoy, I would be doing my best to find dirt on Carles Puigdemont and speaker Carme Forcadell. If they are clean, which I really doubt, I would see what I could do to create an environment that suggests a conflict of interest of some kind. Failing that, a car accident would be very useful. I would make sure the car was very expensive, drugs were found, and that bottles of alcohol were everywhere. My attitude is that if the central government can’t make themselves look good, why not make the separatists leaders look dirty?

This is fascinating to watch, but I would not want to be there.

Catalan vote finished and the misery begins

10/27/2017 at about 9:00 am cst. I am watching FRANCE24 livestream of the Barcelona declaration of independence.

Okay, they have taken the vote and decided to be independent. Naturally, the Spanish central government had already removed Catalan autonomy.

During this process I’ve noticed a few things. The central government has done almost everything they could to look like the bad guys. The Catalan separatists are no saints, but they are better at marketing.

The issues are now lethal.

Is the central government ready to use military force? Are the Catalans ready to do so as well? Is the central government capable of running Catalan in ANY CASE? The central government is, at best, utterly incompetent. If they can’t handle what they already have, is there ANY possibility that they won’t train wreck in Catalonia? Franco ran Spain with an iron hand for years. I don’t believe the central government has the stones to play the game that he did.

Making all of this even more fun will be the European Union. They will resist and independence to the last bullet. They don’t want their own civil disorder. The EU will look bad no matter what they do or do not do.

I foresee a hostile central government occupation with a civil resistance forming and hardening within a couple of weeks.

The basque autonomous community, along with the Catalan peoples, are not going to fold easily.

The smart play would be for the central government to negotiate a separation. There are no up sides for them in this mess.

Make no mistake, the Catalan and the Basque communities are in for a rude awakening. Even if they get everything they want, they will have at least a generation or two of confusion and internal political unrest. The separatists need to move fast and deliver quickly. A sales job is one thing, but actually running a new country isn’t so simple.

Tourism is the one thing that was really helping the Spanish coffers. So much for that income stream!

Today is a day to rejoice if you live outside of the former borders of Spain.

Nazis to March in Spandau

ABC News reports, In Germany, neo-Nazis get to march but threats are verboten.

500 Nazis are going to march this weekend in honor of Rudolf Hess, in Berlin’s western district of Spandau.

I’m sure everything will be fine. I know that the German government will be as careful with the Nazi march as they are with immigration…

Earlier this year, they had antifa running around during the G-20 summit committing various acts of violence and intimidation. Now they are going to have Nazis running around in tribute to Hess. Germany has hate groups all over the place and I just don’t think this one is going to end well.