Merkel coalition blues

Merkel dances on the edge. As a Daily Mail article puts it, Merkel’s last chance: Chancellor must agree a coalition deal TONIGHT to avoid political crisis for Germany… and admits there are ‘large obstacles in their path’.

Her problem is simple to explain but verges on impossible to solve. She MUST form a coalition government by 5pm CST Jan 22, 2018. If she does not, things happen.

CNBC describes the options as follows;

  • minority government
  • another grand coalition
  • new elections

Since the hard right, think AfD, has been gaining ground recently, she will NOT want to risk another election.

The CNBC article also points out that:

“If Merkel were to lead a minority government, passing legislation in the Bundestag would be a political nightmare given the differences between the several parties.”

The CDU was sharing power with the Socialist Party, in the prior coalition until the September elections were held. The Socialist Party has indicated that it prefers to be in opposition. In other words, another grand coalition does not look like it is going to happen, no return to the good old days.

Making all of this even more entertaining is the fact that this could be “…the first time since World War II that a German election hasn’t produced a government.”

My gut instinct is that she will get her coalition. She has been in the game a LONG time and knows the rights moves. Neither she, nor the other politicos can afford to see any more shift to the hard right. I hope she fails, but rats on a sinking ship tend to go down last…

If she does cut the deals, she is going to be miserable and have problems getting the simplest of legislation taken care of. If she fails to form the coalition, it is back to the races and anything can happen!

The European politicos like to keep everything to the last minute to build drama and appear to actually be doing something. For all I know, the deals have already been made and this is just Merkel showmanship…

Even if a deal is cut, a vote must be held by a legislative group on January 21st. To get that vote to approve any coalition, they will need to overcome the very valid concerns of the party members…

I say, “Who needs organized sports when you have politics?” Feel free to quote me!